Let’s be real. How many of you kicked yourselves for not jumping into some long positions last Friday?
Of course, hindsight is 20/20, and unless you’ve got a crystal ball, there’s no sure way to know what the market will do next. What you can do, though, is be ready for the next opportunity, and one stock that’s flashing signals is Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI).
Super Micro Computer has had a rocky ride. The company was delisted from the Nasdaq in 2018, after there was a report of possible accounting issues by Hindenburg Research, and it risked being delisted from the Nasdaq again in February 2025. SMCI managed to get its act together, filed its 10-K, and clawed its way back into compliance. Now it’s back on the SCTR radar, and with a current reading of 99 — an impressive move. As such, the stock has made its way into the Top 10 StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) report in the Large Cap category. Will it muscle its way back into the top three like it did in early 2024?
SMCI Stock’s Journey
The three-year arithmetic scale weekly chart of SMCI below shows the stock price rising higher and making a steep vertical upward move in 2024. SMCI’s stock price hit a high of $122.90 on the week of March 4. From there, things weren’t great. The stock price faced headwinds, bringing the stock price to a low of $17.25 by mid-November 2024. SMCI’s stock price has been grinding higher, carving out a series of higher lows.
FIGURE 1. WEEKLY CHART OF SMCI STOCK. After hitting a high of $129.90 in early March 2024, the stock tanked to $17.25 by mid-November. It is starting to show signs of recovery, but how far will it go this time?Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
From a weekly perspective, SMCI looks like it’s regrouping, and this week’s spike might just be the shot of adrenaline it needs.
The Daily View: A More Granular Perspective
A partnership with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), a Saudi Arabian data center deal, and a couple of analyst nods may have had something to do with SMCI’s stock price gap up on Wednesday. But let’s shift away from the headlines and talk technicals (see daily chart of SMCI below).
FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF SMCI STOCK. The stock gapped up on Wednesday. Will it continue higher, or will the gap get filled? Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
SMCI has broken above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) (even if it’s still sloping downward … a small detail not to be overlooked).
The relative strength index (RSI) is getting close to its 70 line, indicating momentum is heating up.
The percentage price oscillator (PPO) is crossing above its zero line.
And again: SMCI’s SCTR score is at 99.1, a position of technical strength.
Is It Time to Get In Front of SMCI?
You know the drill. Timing a trade is about strategy. There’s always the temptation to hit the buy button, but rushing in can lead to expensive regrets. Ever place a limit order and end up canceling it because your nerves got the better of you? We’ve all been there.
Gaps like the one we saw in SMCI on Wednesday are tricky. They often get filled, but not always. So, in the case of SMCI, it may be worth waiting for the dust to settle. This is where patience becomes your superpower.
An ideal scenario would be a pullback in price to perhaps the 200-day SMA, followed by a reversal. If the RSI breaks above 70 and the PPO rises above the zero line, it would confirm the necessary follow-through to push the price higher. Wait for the ideal setup before you make your move.
In other words: Don’t chase. Let the trade come to you.
Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.